Simulating Global Feedbacks between Sea Level Rise, Water for Agriculture and the Complex Socio-economic Development of the Ipcc Scenarios

Nature's way of dealing with unhealthy conditions is unfortunately not one that compels us to conduct a solvent hygiene on a cash basis. 1919, George Bernard Shaw The Global Unified Meta-model of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) was used to simulate how the socioeconomic conditions specified in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) influence vulnerability to climate change. Input parameters are the consumer preferences, investment strategies, natural resources management and technological development associated with the SRES scenarios. From this input the characteristic SRES driving forces population growth, economic development and fossil fuel use were reproduced in GUMBO with the corresponding climate scenarios (temperature change, sea level rise and rainfall patterns). This article shows alternative pathways of development exist that yield the same SRES driving forces but that differ significantly in their vulnerability to sea level rise and water availability. It concludes that an assessment of the relative vulnerability of the SRES scenarios that takes into account the socio-economic characteristics of these scenarios, can challenge assessments based on climate change and the driving forces only. The assessment of alternative complex socio-economic conditions is an important addition to understand our world’s vulnerability to climate change. GUMBO offers a promising, flexible and fast environment for the assessment. The GUMBO model and documentation can be downloaded from www.uvm.edu/giee/GUMBO.